I am bringing to a close this H5N1 blog.
It is unlikely that H5N1 will ever emerge as a significant threat to mankind.
This will be my final post to this blog.
Please catch me on the Mabon Dane project, involved with artificial intelligence.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Friday, June 17, 2011
H5N1 is still out there
Another year goes by since my last update here. It appears though the media are no long concerned about H5N1 that it still continues to lurk in the background killing people. The latest report is five H5N1 infections in Egypt, 3 fatal.
It seems the great mass killing pandemic of H5N1 never materialised.
It seems the great mass killing pandemic of H5N1 never materialised.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Keep your guard up
This is a quick update on this blog.
World media interest on H5N1 has died down thanks to the likes of the Credit Crisis.
The H5N1 according to the majority opinion has ceased to be a major problem in most parts of the world, but all will say to keep the guard up. Viruses like most things in nature should not be taken for granted. One day H5N1 may return fast and deadlier than it has been. For now, we can all relax and enjoy the Credit Crisis instead of avian flu viruses.
See you all next year, or earlier if H5N1 decides to worry us all during 2010.
Mabon Dane
World media interest on H5N1 has died down thanks to the likes of the Credit Crisis.
The H5N1 according to the majority opinion has ceased to be a major problem in most parts of the world, but all will say to keep the guard up. Viruses like most things in nature should not be taken for granted. One day H5N1 may return fast and deadlier than it has been. For now, we can all relax and enjoy the Credit Crisis instead of avian flu viruses.
See you all next year, or earlier if H5N1 decides to worry us all during 2010.
Mabon Dane
Sunday, September 20, 2009
H1N1 going for round two
Just when you thought it was safe H1N1 is coming back for another round with humanity.
H1N1 began a world tour starting in Mexico in April 2009 where it caused many deaths before heading around the world causing a panic not seen with H5N1.
Students in the West have returned back to school, and so it appears has H1N1, sources both in the USA and the UK both report H1N1 infections have gone up in recent weeks.
It is only a matter of time before H5N1 will join H1N1 in a deadly game of tag with humanity.
H1N1 began a world tour starting in Mexico in April 2009 where it caused many deaths before heading around the world causing a panic not seen with H5N1.
Students in the West have returned back to school, and so it appears has H1N1, sources both in the USA and the UK both report H1N1 infections have gone up in recent weeks.
It is only a matter of time before H5N1 will join H1N1 in a deadly game of tag with humanity.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
H1N1 near 100% resistant to Tamiflu
Tamiflu being one of the main drug defences against bird flu is being undermined as studies in Japan and Korea show that the H1N1 virus is near 100% resistant to the drug. Should H1N1 and H5N1 exchange genes then this near complete resistance to Tamiflu could be passed on to H5N1.
Egypt suffers a new human H5N1 case
H5N1 appears to be settling into the Middle East with a 21-month-old coming down with the virus in Egypt.
Chinese H5N1 chickens smuggled into Vietnam
Police in Vietnam intercepted H5N1 contaminated chickens being imported illegally into Vietnam. This blog believes that China must do more to curb the spread of H5N1 by dealing with the movement of infected poultry across international borders. Secondly, China should crack down on the use of drugs in animal feed which is assisting in building up H5N1 drug resistance.
Two and a half years and back
It has been two and half years since I last updated this blog and I thought it about time to restart my reports on H5N1. H5N1 is not making big headlines as it once did, people are more concerned with the credit crunch just now. However, H5N1 has not gone away and it lurks in the shadows as threat that could strike anytime. Two and a half years later I am surprised that H5N1 has not become a pandemic yet; but H5N1 still continues to cause problems in Asia and the Middle East, there is no effective drugs and it appears impossible to eliminate. More than ever in a world suffering social and economic hardship from the credit crunch, an H5N1 pandemic could prove to be a nightmare.
H5N1 shows increasing resistance to drugs
A recent study by the University of Colorado, USA as reported by scientistalive.com reports that H5N1 is showing increasing resistance to antiviral drugs known as adamantanes. This resistance was down to Chinese farmers adding the drug to chicken feed.
Friday, July 21, 2006
H5N1 in Bulgaria and Indonesia
H5N1 is suspected in the deaths of domestic poultry in Bulgaria this week, tests in the UK are awaited to confirm if this is the case.
Indonesia reports death number 42 putting the country in the same top league for H5N1 deaths as Vietnam. As far as the world media is concerned these deaths are so few that it regards it as no big deal. The problem is that with every death and infection the chances of H5N1 changing and jumping to humans increases. Recent studies have indicated that H5N1 has mutated to become more capable of of infecting humans in Indonesia.
The H5N1 season will begin from about August, and I wonder if the next 9 months will herald the start of the worldwide pandemic that so many fear.
Indonesia reports death number 42 putting the country in the same top league for H5N1 deaths as Vietnam. As far as the world media is concerned these deaths are so few that it regards it as no big deal. The problem is that with every death and infection the chances of H5N1 changing and jumping to humans increases. Recent studies have indicated that H5N1 has mutated to become more capable of of infecting humans in Indonesia.
The H5N1 season will begin from about August, and I wonder if the next 9 months will herald the start of the worldwide pandemic that so many fear.
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
H5N1 joke compliments of Tina
During my many conversations about H5N1 on the internet a person called Tina shared this joke with me. I am sure that whilst there are many jokes around about H5N1, the resulting panic from a pandemic in any unprepared country will be no laughing matter.
A bear, a lion and a chicken meet.
A bear, a lion and a chicken meet.
The Bear says: "If I roar in the forest, the entire forest is shivering with fear."
The Lion says: "If I roar in the jungle, the entire jungle is afraid of me."
H5N1 a few months on
It has been a few months since my last post but it appears H5N1, like myself, has taken things a bit easier after it arrived on the European scene in a big way. H5N1 continues to grow and establish itself slowly and silently throughout the areas of africa, europe and asia.
In England we had a minor scare when a swan turned up in Scotland with H5N1. The swan appeared to be a visitor from outside of UK so the scare quickly passed when no other incidents were found.
In Indonesia there is talk of human to human transmission on a limited scale. Indonesia is one of the most heavily populated areas in the world where there is no centralisation and life is basic across a thousand or more islands.
In Hungary some wonder drug against H5N1 is proving to be a hoax according to some people. Not that I will give any credit to any claims of a vaccine as the H5N1 human version of the virus has yet to emerge.
Ukraine appears to be the latest country to fall to the H5N1 world tour.
WHO continues to hold onto their secret database of genetic data on the virus. One can only speculate that drug company financial interests directs the WHO's decision to keep their database secret.
Our heros in Recombinomics have picked up some slight variations in the H5N1 virus which makes it more easier to pass onto humans.
There probably will be no more significant events in relation to H5N1 until the birds begin their mass movements again. In the meantime H5N1 will continue its relentless spread across the globe and more humans will die.
In England we had a minor scare when a swan turned up in Scotland with H5N1. The swan appeared to be a visitor from outside of UK so the scare quickly passed when no other incidents were found.
In Indonesia there is talk of human to human transmission on a limited scale. Indonesia is one of the most heavily populated areas in the world where there is no centralisation and life is basic across a thousand or more islands.
In Hungary some wonder drug against H5N1 is proving to be a hoax according to some people. Not that I will give any credit to any claims of a vaccine as the H5N1 human version of the virus has yet to emerge.
Ukraine appears to be the latest country to fall to the H5N1 world tour.
WHO continues to hold onto their secret database of genetic data on the virus. One can only speculate that drug company financial interests directs the WHO's decision to keep their database secret.
Our heros in Recombinomics have picked up some slight variations in the H5N1 virus which makes it more easier to pass onto humans.
There probably will be no more significant events in relation to H5N1 until the birds begin their mass movements again. In the meantime H5N1 will continue its relentless spread across the globe and more humans will die.
Monday, March 06, 2006
Austria: Cats get lucky
A couple of cats in Austria, despite being down on a few of their nine lives, are said to be quite alive after being found to have been infected with H5N1. Although these cats may consider themselves lucky to be alive other cats may not be so sure. German cat owners are a fearful lot, and the last thing German cats need right now is more negative publicity causing further stampedes to the vets and animal shelters with rejected moggies.
WHO shows some muscle
The WHO opened their three-day Geneva meeting of wise folk to address the spread of an "aggressive" chicken virus by showing some muscle. Um well sort of. I mean there was no sumo wrestlers but the squeaks and well meaning tough words did sort of make them look tough... sort of.
WHO rolled out their top influenza expert and H5N1 terminator, Margaret Chan. It was not exactly Jackie Chan but Margaret was the best WHO could come up with at short notice. Margaret opened the debate with the startling statement that "the first thing would be to try to stamp it out before it really took hold." Yes Margaret good plan um bit late but a good plan. I mean in 2004 when H5N1 was stuck in a Vietnam backwater it would have been a jolly good plan. H5N1 has sort of branched out a bit, but it is good to hear that despite invading a couple of dozen countries around the world that H5N1 is still considered as not having taken "hold".
After plan A, Margaret even had a plan B. Plan B was to "curtail" the spread of H5N1. Um Margaret do you also have a plan C?
Margaret said that with such an "unpredictable virus like the influenza virus" that everyone must be prepared to see some "surprises". Observers have remarked that experts coming out of WHO are always identifiable with the constant look of surprise etched on their faces, rather like the type you get when hit in the face with a rubber chicken.
Our resident H5N1 terminator, Margaret, was now warming up, and said that collective actions was required and that WHO was not without its defences. It was unclear if Margaret was in fact when referring to defence was thinking about the hulking military trained security who guarded the WHO building. Collective actions can mean many things to a Goverment expert, and can range from a nice get together for a collective chat about chicken viruses over a cup of coffee in Geneva, to bold actions like collective statements that most Governments ignore anyway.
Margaret was not without her secret weapons. Quarantine and the firm around the corner from the WHO building, Roche, with its wonder drug, Tamiflu, was considered the frontline WHO weaponary of choice that would kick H5N1 ass... well tickle it anyway.
Margaret then amazed with some magical H5N1 figures that any self respecting H5N1 expert must be capable of to be taken seriously. Margaret was awarded a score of 10 out of 10 by an appreciative audience of fellow experts for observation and orginality when Margaret said that "events in recent weeks justify our concern."
Margaret sort of let the WHO tough stance down a bit with a rather unpositive set of statements, along the lines that H5N1 was slowly mutating to become a human killer, in which humans with no immunity would die by the million, collapsing entire nation economies, and generally being really rotten to human beings.
Margaret finished on a roll stating that even if the pandemic could not be stopped then at least quarantine could buy countries enough time. Observers were not sure to what use the extra time would be used, but another Geneva based positive thinking exercise over coffee may well be on the cards.
WHO rolled out their top influenza expert and H5N1 terminator, Margaret Chan. It was not exactly Jackie Chan but Margaret was the best WHO could come up with at short notice. Margaret opened the debate with the startling statement that "the first thing would be to try to stamp it out before it really took hold." Yes Margaret good plan um bit late but a good plan. I mean in 2004 when H5N1 was stuck in a Vietnam backwater it would have been a jolly good plan. H5N1 has sort of branched out a bit, but it is good to hear that despite invading a couple of dozen countries around the world that H5N1 is still considered as not having taken "hold".
After plan A, Margaret even had a plan B. Plan B was to "curtail" the spread of H5N1. Um Margaret do you also have a plan C?
Margaret said that with such an "unpredictable virus like the influenza virus" that everyone must be prepared to see some "surprises". Observers have remarked that experts coming out of WHO are always identifiable with the constant look of surprise etched on their faces, rather like the type you get when hit in the face with a rubber chicken.
Our resident H5N1 terminator, Margaret, was now warming up, and said that collective actions was required and that WHO was not without its defences. It was unclear if Margaret was in fact when referring to defence was thinking about the hulking military trained security who guarded the WHO building. Collective actions can mean many things to a Goverment expert, and can range from a nice get together for a collective chat about chicken viruses over a cup of coffee in Geneva, to bold actions like collective statements that most Governments ignore anyway.
Margaret was not without her secret weapons. Quarantine and the firm around the corner from the WHO building, Roche, with its wonder drug, Tamiflu, was considered the frontline WHO weaponary of choice that would kick H5N1 ass... well tickle it anyway.
Margaret then amazed with some magical H5N1 figures that any self respecting H5N1 expert must be capable of to be taken seriously. Margaret was awarded a score of 10 out of 10 by an appreciative audience of fellow experts for observation and orginality when Margaret said that "events in recent weeks justify our concern."
Margaret sort of let the WHO tough stance down a bit with a rather unpositive set of statements, along the lines that H5N1 was slowly mutating to become a human killer, in which humans with no immunity would die by the million, collapsing entire nation economies, and generally being really rotten to human beings.
Margaret finished on a roll stating that even if the pandemic could not be stopped then at least quarantine could buy countries enough time. Observers were not sure to what use the extra time would be used, but another Geneva based positive thinking exercise over coffee may well be on the cards.
Indonesia: More H5N1 deaths?
Many deaths of birds or humans where H5N1 is mentioned has to end with a question mark as for some reason the experts are slow at identifying H5N1 as each case arises. For a rather "aggressive" virus like H5N1 this is not good news because by the time the scene of crime experts have concluded the killer was H5N1 the said killer has probably been able to get through a dozen more victims. New suspected victims blamed on H5N1 recently is a pregnant women and a ten year old who have both died with symptoms suspected to be H5N1 related in Indonesia. Indonesia is the last country anyone with sense would want to be in right now as H5N1 settles in for a long stay in one of the world's more populated nations.
Sick birds and water
An interesting report from Yemen described what sick birds do when ill. Recently doves in Yemen were found to be ill in what was suspected to be H5N1. In fact the doves were suffering from Newcastle disease. The birds were exhausted, hardly moved and could be easily caught. The birds when touched were very warm showing that they had a high temperature. What the feverish birds do is find water sources and will then proceed to drink as much as they can, whilst also soaking their heads and bodies in the water to cool their fever. There is no reason why birds with H5N1 would not act in the same way as these doves with Newcastle disease when suffering a fever. H5N1 if shed into a water source is active for a certain period of time, and if a human or other animal comes into contact with the contaminated water then it does not take much imagination to guess the consequences.
Georgia: State of Emergency
London experts with the usual speed usually reserved for British Rail was on hand to confirm a dead swan from Georgia died of H5N1 after nine days delay. During the nine days H5N1 was meanwhile happily saying hello to more Georgia wild birds. On hearing the news... nine days later... the Georgian President declared a state of emergency and started the process of the extermination of all domestic birdlife in the affected region. Things must have been getting very interesting on EastEnders recently.
Bahamas: H5N1 "exaggerated"
At the time of writing the echo of the gun that shot experts and goverment officials in the foot recently is bouncing around the vicinity of the Bahamas much to the amusement of flamingos and tourists.
Not a few days ago the Bahamas Government and experts were telling the world about mass deaths of flamingos with H5N1 mentioned in frightened tones as being the suspected cause. The Bahamas got lots of publicity and the tourists stayed at home. Realising that possibly chicken viruses and the Bahamas tourist economy did not mix the Bahamas Government started talking about other causes that included death by old age and death by dog. It is not known if the deceased flamingos prefered death by dog to chicken flu virus, but may have prefered an alternative of living if it was also offered as an alternative. We are now told by Bahamas experts that the numbers of deceased flamingos was exaggerated and in fact only about five flamingos kicked the bucket. The conclusion was that either the experts were bored or failed to bring an abacus with them when they counted the dead birds. Tourists can now rest assured that H5N1 has yet to visit the Bahamas and that the whole H5N1 issue was just voodoo.
Not a few days ago the Bahamas Government and experts were telling the world about mass deaths of flamingos with H5N1 mentioned in frightened tones as being the suspected cause. The Bahamas got lots of publicity and the tourists stayed at home. Realising that possibly chicken viruses and the Bahamas tourist economy did not mix the Bahamas Government started talking about other causes that included death by old age and death by dog. It is not known if the deceased flamingos prefered death by dog to chicken flu virus, but may have prefered an alternative of living if it was also offered as an alternative. We are now told by Bahamas experts that the numbers of deceased flamingos was exaggerated and in fact only about five flamingos kicked the bucket. The conclusion was that either the experts were bored or failed to bring an abacus with them when they counted the dead birds. Tourists can now rest assured that H5N1 has yet to visit the Bahamas and that the whole H5N1 issue was just voodoo.
Sunday, March 05, 2006
H5N1 Panic Indicators
Reporting of H5N1 is a bit slow at the weekends due to the fact that many of our heros, like those in our Weybridge Laboratory are enjoying EastEnders, fishing or probably both activities at the weekend. As our experts travel back to work during the week reports pick up and so I expect lots more exciting news of H5N1 movement over the next few days. It appears half of the world need the experts at Weybridge, England, to be on hand to tell them the news that H5N1 has visited their chickens, but EastEnders is a very important part of Britains heritage so the world must be patient, especially as things can get very exciting on the EastEnders soap at times.
So what does a non H5N1 expert like me who has no interest in EastEnders look for from a virus with attitude? Well I am very interested in the movement of H5N1 towards England on account of me living there. It is all very well reporting on killer viruses doing in the native population in exotic countries, with unpronouncable names, that are a million miles away, but having a virus that could kill you in your own backyard generally takes on a new meaning, especially when it comes to the subject of self preservation. I am a coward you see. I view a killer chicken virus in the same way I would view a hungry pitbull. Generally I prefer not to be in the vicinity of both occurrences, on account of my love of life, especially my own.
All this said what am I looking for? For Britain I am watching for any movement of H5N1 flying West, especially towards Normandy, Brittany and the Netherlands. When H5N1 reaches these countries then I know H5N1 will be in Britain within a few days.
I am of course also interested in what H5N1 will do in the Americas. Good early warning points are Alaska and Hawaii as these countries are on the flight path of bird migrations over the coming months. How the US public will view all this is hard to say as they have been brought up on decades of disaster movies where the population is saved just in the nick of time by a brilliant scientist or hero like Rambo. So one will have to wait so see if a country, that has spent an impressive amount of money on protecting the public from terrorists and their own citizens, are ready to handle a chicken virus. Noting what happened in New Orleans after a hurricane visited, I believe the USA will be ready for a whole rerun of the Cosbys to forget the whole horrid thing when H5N1 finally does touch down. The joke doing the rounds is that George Bush intends to address the bird flu issue by bombing the Canary Isles, however one cannot put it past the US President to take out Turkey as an afterthought, being as it is an Islamic country after all. Further south is South America and it is hard to say how H5N1 will be able to cope in hot wet countries where even the fish have teeth.
Then there is H5N1 itself. I am watching those genes resorting themselves into new terrifying combinations as H5N1 views humans as the main course after the chicken starters have been served. This area is very hard because apart from Recombinomics there are few other sources of information about genetic changes in H5N1. People in WHO like to horde their data you see as there is money to be made from developing vaccines for billions of people who will possibly start dying from a chicken virus at anytime soon. It is a new and promising market for the businessman with the right connections, so one cannot blame WHO for showing a shrewd interest in making a quick killing when the time comes. Another way of following the progress of H5N1 is the trail of dead bodies it leaves behind. For instance if minks and cats start dying in their millions there is a strong hint that H5N1 has changed its genetic code to become an expert cat or mink killer. The same could be said about humans. In most cases, except for China, the deaths of humans by H5N1 is reported quickly. When the body count increases beyond a certain number even the most thick observer can conclude there is something wrong.
So there you are. Now you know what I am watching for amongst the latest H5N1 trends. Personally I consider H5N1 watching is better than train spotting. Train spotters may disagree with me on this point, but I am unable to compare H5N1 to train spotting on account that the Government closed down the railway in my town 40 years ago. Watching H5N1 is great fun and plus I have a subject to write about in a blogger.
So what does a non H5N1 expert like me who has no interest in EastEnders look for from a virus with attitude? Well I am very interested in the movement of H5N1 towards England on account of me living there. It is all very well reporting on killer viruses doing in the native population in exotic countries, with unpronouncable names, that are a million miles away, but having a virus that could kill you in your own backyard generally takes on a new meaning, especially when it comes to the subject of self preservation. I am a coward you see. I view a killer chicken virus in the same way I would view a hungry pitbull. Generally I prefer not to be in the vicinity of both occurrences, on account of my love of life, especially my own.
All this said what am I looking for? For Britain I am watching for any movement of H5N1 flying West, especially towards Normandy, Brittany and the Netherlands. When H5N1 reaches these countries then I know H5N1 will be in Britain within a few days.
I am of course also interested in what H5N1 will do in the Americas. Good early warning points are Alaska and Hawaii as these countries are on the flight path of bird migrations over the coming months. How the US public will view all this is hard to say as they have been brought up on decades of disaster movies where the population is saved just in the nick of time by a brilliant scientist or hero like Rambo. So one will have to wait so see if a country, that has spent an impressive amount of money on protecting the public from terrorists and their own citizens, are ready to handle a chicken virus. Noting what happened in New Orleans after a hurricane visited, I believe the USA will be ready for a whole rerun of the Cosbys to forget the whole horrid thing when H5N1 finally does touch down. The joke doing the rounds is that George Bush intends to address the bird flu issue by bombing the Canary Isles, however one cannot put it past the US President to take out Turkey as an afterthought, being as it is an Islamic country after all. Further south is South America and it is hard to say how H5N1 will be able to cope in hot wet countries where even the fish have teeth.
Then there is H5N1 itself. I am watching those genes resorting themselves into new terrifying combinations as H5N1 views humans as the main course after the chicken starters have been served. This area is very hard because apart from Recombinomics there are few other sources of information about genetic changes in H5N1. People in WHO like to horde their data you see as there is money to be made from developing vaccines for billions of people who will possibly start dying from a chicken virus at anytime soon. It is a new and promising market for the businessman with the right connections, so one cannot blame WHO for showing a shrewd interest in making a quick killing when the time comes. Another way of following the progress of H5N1 is the trail of dead bodies it leaves behind. For instance if minks and cats start dying in their millions there is a strong hint that H5N1 has changed its genetic code to become an expert cat or mink killer. The same could be said about humans. In most cases, except for China, the deaths of humans by H5N1 is reported quickly. When the body count increases beyond a certain number even the most thick observer can conclude there is something wrong.
So there you are. Now you know what I am watching for amongst the latest H5N1 trends. Personally I consider H5N1 watching is better than train spotting. Train spotters may disagree with me on this point, but I am unable to compare H5N1 to train spotting on account that the Government closed down the railway in my town 40 years ago. Watching H5N1 is great fun and plus I have a subject to write about in a blogger.
Burkina Faso: "Massive" Bird Deaths
Lots of rarely heard of countries are popping up along with reports of possible H5N1 visits. Burkina Faso, a small forgotten country in the Black Sea area of the Mediterranean has reported devastation of poultry farms and "massive" deaths of ducks, guinea fowls, turkeys, pigeons and even of vultures in the same period. The report did not specify if the vulture was a politician but the death of vultures shows that H5N1 is not particularly selective about what bird species it kills. Burkina Faso residents were aso on hand with a stopwatch to see how fast the mystery guest could kill a bird and it was said that it could kill a chicken in two minutes and an entire farmyard of poultry in 30 minutes. I await confirmation from the Guinness Book of Records if this is a new record for killer viruses.
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