Monday, March 06, 2006
Austria: Cats get lucky
A couple of cats in Austria, despite being down on a few of their nine lives, are said to be quite alive after being found to have been infected with H5N1. Although these cats may consider themselves lucky to be alive other cats may not be so sure. German cat owners are a fearful lot, and the last thing German cats need right now is more negative publicity causing further stampedes to the vets and animal shelters with rejected moggies.
WHO shows some muscle
The WHO opened their three-day Geneva meeting of wise folk to address the spread of an "aggressive" chicken virus by showing some muscle. Um well sort of. I mean there was no sumo wrestlers but the squeaks and well meaning tough words did sort of make them look tough... sort of.
WHO rolled out their top influenza expert and H5N1 terminator, Margaret Chan. It was not exactly Jackie Chan but Margaret was the best WHO could come up with at short notice. Margaret opened the debate with the startling statement that "the first thing would be to try to stamp it out before it really took hold." Yes Margaret good plan um bit late but a good plan. I mean in 2004 when H5N1 was stuck in a Vietnam backwater it would have been a jolly good plan. H5N1 has sort of branched out a bit, but it is good to hear that despite invading a couple of dozen countries around the world that H5N1 is still considered as not having taken "hold".
After plan A, Margaret even had a plan B. Plan B was to "curtail" the spread of H5N1. Um Margaret do you also have a plan C?
Margaret said that with such an "unpredictable virus like the influenza virus" that everyone must be prepared to see some "surprises". Observers have remarked that experts coming out of WHO are always identifiable with the constant look of surprise etched on their faces, rather like the type you get when hit in the face with a rubber chicken.
Our resident H5N1 terminator, Margaret, was now warming up, and said that collective actions was required and that WHO was not without its defences. It was unclear if Margaret was in fact when referring to defence was thinking about the hulking military trained security who guarded the WHO building. Collective actions can mean many things to a Goverment expert, and can range from a nice get together for a collective chat about chicken viruses over a cup of coffee in Geneva, to bold actions like collective statements that most Governments ignore anyway.
Margaret was not without her secret weapons. Quarantine and the firm around the corner from the WHO building, Roche, with its wonder drug, Tamiflu, was considered the frontline WHO weaponary of choice that would kick H5N1 ass... well tickle it anyway.
Margaret then amazed with some magical H5N1 figures that any self respecting H5N1 expert must be capable of to be taken seriously. Margaret was awarded a score of 10 out of 10 by an appreciative audience of fellow experts for observation and orginality when Margaret said that "events in recent weeks justify our concern."
Margaret sort of let the WHO tough stance down a bit with a rather unpositive set of statements, along the lines that H5N1 was slowly mutating to become a human killer, in which humans with no immunity would die by the million, collapsing entire nation economies, and generally being really rotten to human beings.
Margaret finished on a roll stating that even if the pandemic could not be stopped then at least quarantine could buy countries enough time. Observers were not sure to what use the extra time would be used, but another Geneva based positive thinking exercise over coffee may well be on the cards.
WHO rolled out their top influenza expert and H5N1 terminator, Margaret Chan. It was not exactly Jackie Chan but Margaret was the best WHO could come up with at short notice. Margaret opened the debate with the startling statement that "the first thing would be to try to stamp it out before it really took hold." Yes Margaret good plan um bit late but a good plan. I mean in 2004 when H5N1 was stuck in a Vietnam backwater it would have been a jolly good plan. H5N1 has sort of branched out a bit, but it is good to hear that despite invading a couple of dozen countries around the world that H5N1 is still considered as not having taken "hold".
After plan A, Margaret even had a plan B. Plan B was to "curtail" the spread of H5N1. Um Margaret do you also have a plan C?
Margaret said that with such an "unpredictable virus like the influenza virus" that everyone must be prepared to see some "surprises". Observers have remarked that experts coming out of WHO are always identifiable with the constant look of surprise etched on their faces, rather like the type you get when hit in the face with a rubber chicken.
Our resident H5N1 terminator, Margaret, was now warming up, and said that collective actions was required and that WHO was not without its defences. It was unclear if Margaret was in fact when referring to defence was thinking about the hulking military trained security who guarded the WHO building. Collective actions can mean many things to a Goverment expert, and can range from a nice get together for a collective chat about chicken viruses over a cup of coffee in Geneva, to bold actions like collective statements that most Governments ignore anyway.
Margaret was not without her secret weapons. Quarantine and the firm around the corner from the WHO building, Roche, with its wonder drug, Tamiflu, was considered the frontline WHO weaponary of choice that would kick H5N1 ass... well tickle it anyway.
Margaret then amazed with some magical H5N1 figures that any self respecting H5N1 expert must be capable of to be taken seriously. Margaret was awarded a score of 10 out of 10 by an appreciative audience of fellow experts for observation and orginality when Margaret said that "events in recent weeks justify our concern."
Margaret sort of let the WHO tough stance down a bit with a rather unpositive set of statements, along the lines that H5N1 was slowly mutating to become a human killer, in which humans with no immunity would die by the million, collapsing entire nation economies, and generally being really rotten to human beings.
Margaret finished on a roll stating that even if the pandemic could not be stopped then at least quarantine could buy countries enough time. Observers were not sure to what use the extra time would be used, but another Geneva based positive thinking exercise over coffee may well be on the cards.
Indonesia: More H5N1 deaths?
Many deaths of birds or humans where H5N1 is mentioned has to end with a question mark as for some reason the experts are slow at identifying H5N1 as each case arises. For a rather "aggressive" virus like H5N1 this is not good news because by the time the scene of crime experts have concluded the killer was H5N1 the said killer has probably been able to get through a dozen more victims. New suspected victims blamed on H5N1 recently is a pregnant women and a ten year old who have both died with symptoms suspected to be H5N1 related in Indonesia. Indonesia is the last country anyone with sense would want to be in right now as H5N1 settles in for a long stay in one of the world's more populated nations.
Sick birds and water
An interesting report from Yemen described what sick birds do when ill. Recently doves in Yemen were found to be ill in what was suspected to be H5N1. In fact the doves were suffering from Newcastle disease. The birds were exhausted, hardly moved and could be easily caught. The birds when touched were very warm showing that they had a high temperature. What the feverish birds do is find water sources and will then proceed to drink as much as they can, whilst also soaking their heads and bodies in the water to cool their fever. There is no reason why birds with H5N1 would not act in the same way as these doves with Newcastle disease when suffering a fever. H5N1 if shed into a water source is active for a certain period of time, and if a human or other animal comes into contact with the contaminated water then it does not take much imagination to guess the consequences.
Georgia: State of Emergency
London experts with the usual speed usually reserved for British Rail was on hand to confirm a dead swan from Georgia died of H5N1 after nine days delay. During the nine days H5N1 was meanwhile happily saying hello to more Georgia wild birds. On hearing the news... nine days later... the Georgian President declared a state of emergency and started the process of the extermination of all domestic birdlife in the affected region. Things must have been getting very interesting on EastEnders recently.
Bahamas: H5N1 "exaggerated"
At the time of writing the echo of the gun that shot experts and goverment officials in the foot recently is bouncing around the vicinity of the Bahamas much to the amusement of flamingos and tourists.
Not a few days ago the Bahamas Government and experts were telling the world about mass deaths of flamingos with H5N1 mentioned in frightened tones as being the suspected cause. The Bahamas got lots of publicity and the tourists stayed at home. Realising that possibly chicken viruses and the Bahamas tourist economy did not mix the Bahamas Government started talking about other causes that included death by old age and death by dog. It is not known if the deceased flamingos prefered death by dog to chicken flu virus, but may have prefered an alternative of living if it was also offered as an alternative. We are now told by Bahamas experts that the numbers of deceased flamingos was exaggerated and in fact only about five flamingos kicked the bucket. The conclusion was that either the experts were bored or failed to bring an abacus with them when they counted the dead birds. Tourists can now rest assured that H5N1 has yet to visit the Bahamas and that the whole H5N1 issue was just voodoo.
Not a few days ago the Bahamas Government and experts were telling the world about mass deaths of flamingos with H5N1 mentioned in frightened tones as being the suspected cause. The Bahamas got lots of publicity and the tourists stayed at home. Realising that possibly chicken viruses and the Bahamas tourist economy did not mix the Bahamas Government started talking about other causes that included death by old age and death by dog. It is not known if the deceased flamingos prefered death by dog to chicken flu virus, but may have prefered an alternative of living if it was also offered as an alternative. We are now told by Bahamas experts that the numbers of deceased flamingos was exaggerated and in fact only about five flamingos kicked the bucket. The conclusion was that either the experts were bored or failed to bring an abacus with them when they counted the dead birds. Tourists can now rest assured that H5N1 has yet to visit the Bahamas and that the whole H5N1 issue was just voodoo.
Sunday, March 05, 2006
H5N1 Panic Indicators
Reporting of H5N1 is a bit slow at the weekends due to the fact that many of our heros, like those in our Weybridge Laboratory are enjoying EastEnders, fishing or probably both activities at the weekend. As our experts travel back to work during the week reports pick up and so I expect lots more exciting news of H5N1 movement over the next few days. It appears half of the world need the experts at Weybridge, England, to be on hand to tell them the news that H5N1 has visited their chickens, but EastEnders is a very important part of Britains heritage so the world must be patient, especially as things can get very exciting on the EastEnders soap at times.
So what does a non H5N1 expert like me who has no interest in EastEnders look for from a virus with attitude? Well I am very interested in the movement of H5N1 towards England on account of me living there. It is all very well reporting on killer viruses doing in the native population in exotic countries, with unpronouncable names, that are a million miles away, but having a virus that could kill you in your own backyard generally takes on a new meaning, especially when it comes to the subject of self preservation. I am a coward you see. I view a killer chicken virus in the same way I would view a hungry pitbull. Generally I prefer not to be in the vicinity of both occurrences, on account of my love of life, especially my own.
All this said what am I looking for? For Britain I am watching for any movement of H5N1 flying West, especially towards Normandy, Brittany and the Netherlands. When H5N1 reaches these countries then I know H5N1 will be in Britain within a few days.
I am of course also interested in what H5N1 will do in the Americas. Good early warning points are Alaska and Hawaii as these countries are on the flight path of bird migrations over the coming months. How the US public will view all this is hard to say as they have been brought up on decades of disaster movies where the population is saved just in the nick of time by a brilliant scientist or hero like Rambo. So one will have to wait so see if a country, that has spent an impressive amount of money on protecting the public from terrorists and their own citizens, are ready to handle a chicken virus. Noting what happened in New Orleans after a hurricane visited, I believe the USA will be ready for a whole rerun of the Cosbys to forget the whole horrid thing when H5N1 finally does touch down. The joke doing the rounds is that George Bush intends to address the bird flu issue by bombing the Canary Isles, however one cannot put it past the US President to take out Turkey as an afterthought, being as it is an Islamic country after all. Further south is South America and it is hard to say how H5N1 will be able to cope in hot wet countries where even the fish have teeth.
Then there is H5N1 itself. I am watching those genes resorting themselves into new terrifying combinations as H5N1 views humans as the main course after the chicken starters have been served. This area is very hard because apart from Recombinomics there are few other sources of information about genetic changes in H5N1. People in WHO like to horde their data you see as there is money to be made from developing vaccines for billions of people who will possibly start dying from a chicken virus at anytime soon. It is a new and promising market for the businessman with the right connections, so one cannot blame WHO for showing a shrewd interest in making a quick killing when the time comes. Another way of following the progress of H5N1 is the trail of dead bodies it leaves behind. For instance if minks and cats start dying in their millions there is a strong hint that H5N1 has changed its genetic code to become an expert cat or mink killer. The same could be said about humans. In most cases, except for China, the deaths of humans by H5N1 is reported quickly. When the body count increases beyond a certain number even the most thick observer can conclude there is something wrong.
So there you are. Now you know what I am watching for amongst the latest H5N1 trends. Personally I consider H5N1 watching is better than train spotting. Train spotters may disagree with me on this point, but I am unable to compare H5N1 to train spotting on account that the Government closed down the railway in my town 40 years ago. Watching H5N1 is great fun and plus I have a subject to write about in a blogger.
So what does a non H5N1 expert like me who has no interest in EastEnders look for from a virus with attitude? Well I am very interested in the movement of H5N1 towards England on account of me living there. It is all very well reporting on killer viruses doing in the native population in exotic countries, with unpronouncable names, that are a million miles away, but having a virus that could kill you in your own backyard generally takes on a new meaning, especially when it comes to the subject of self preservation. I am a coward you see. I view a killer chicken virus in the same way I would view a hungry pitbull. Generally I prefer not to be in the vicinity of both occurrences, on account of my love of life, especially my own.
All this said what am I looking for? For Britain I am watching for any movement of H5N1 flying West, especially towards Normandy, Brittany and the Netherlands. When H5N1 reaches these countries then I know H5N1 will be in Britain within a few days.
I am of course also interested in what H5N1 will do in the Americas. Good early warning points are Alaska and Hawaii as these countries are on the flight path of bird migrations over the coming months. How the US public will view all this is hard to say as they have been brought up on decades of disaster movies where the population is saved just in the nick of time by a brilliant scientist or hero like Rambo. So one will have to wait so see if a country, that has spent an impressive amount of money on protecting the public from terrorists and their own citizens, are ready to handle a chicken virus. Noting what happened in New Orleans after a hurricane visited, I believe the USA will be ready for a whole rerun of the Cosbys to forget the whole horrid thing when H5N1 finally does touch down. The joke doing the rounds is that George Bush intends to address the bird flu issue by bombing the Canary Isles, however one cannot put it past the US President to take out Turkey as an afterthought, being as it is an Islamic country after all. Further south is South America and it is hard to say how H5N1 will be able to cope in hot wet countries where even the fish have teeth.
Then there is H5N1 itself. I am watching those genes resorting themselves into new terrifying combinations as H5N1 views humans as the main course after the chicken starters have been served. This area is very hard because apart from Recombinomics there are few other sources of information about genetic changes in H5N1. People in WHO like to horde their data you see as there is money to be made from developing vaccines for billions of people who will possibly start dying from a chicken virus at anytime soon. It is a new and promising market for the businessman with the right connections, so one cannot blame WHO for showing a shrewd interest in making a quick killing when the time comes. Another way of following the progress of H5N1 is the trail of dead bodies it leaves behind. For instance if minks and cats start dying in their millions there is a strong hint that H5N1 has changed its genetic code to become an expert cat or mink killer. The same could be said about humans. In most cases, except for China, the deaths of humans by H5N1 is reported quickly. When the body count increases beyond a certain number even the most thick observer can conclude there is something wrong.
So there you are. Now you know what I am watching for amongst the latest H5N1 trends. Personally I consider H5N1 watching is better than train spotting. Train spotters may disagree with me on this point, but I am unable to compare H5N1 to train spotting on account that the Government closed down the railway in my town 40 years ago. Watching H5N1 is great fun and plus I have a subject to write about in a blogger.
Burkina Faso: "Massive" Bird Deaths
Lots of rarely heard of countries are popping up along with reports of possible H5N1 visits. Burkina Faso, a small forgotten country in the Black Sea area of the Mediterranean has reported devastation of poultry farms and "massive" deaths of ducks, guinea fowls, turkeys, pigeons and even of vultures in the same period. The report did not specify if the vulture was a politician but the death of vultures shows that H5N1 is not particularly selective about what bird species it kills. Burkina Faso residents were aso on hand with a stopwatch to see how fast the mystery guest could kill a bird and it was said that it could kill a chicken in two minutes and an entire farmyard of poultry in 30 minutes. I await confirmation from the Guinness Book of Records if this is a new record for killer viruses.
Switzereland/France: H5N1 Spreads
H5N1 is making itself at home in Switzerland and France. Switzerland reports new cases of H5N1 bringing to 11 the new H5N1 cases, with more cases said to follow. France also reports H5N1 is on the move but it is moving further south towards the Mediterranean. Either experts are being a bit slow on reporting H5N1 or H5N1 has gone on a lunchbreak because reports in recent days does not show much movement by H5N1 towards the West or North of Europe.
Poland: Good Morning Poland!
Polish residents woke up to the news they did not want to hear that H5N1 has touched down for the first time in Poland. A swan, being a particular favoured species of H5N1, was found dead at Torun in northern Poland. More cases will no doubt start to be found in Poland in the coming days before H5N1 gets to grips with Polish chickens and humans.
Saturday, March 04, 2006
H5N1 infects via insects?
India being a very intellectual country provided a very detailed report on how H5N1 spreads to their citizens recently. Of interest amongst the many facts Indian experts revealed, that an English expert would rather hide with lottery win predictions, was that 1 gram of infected H5N1 material is enough to infect 1 million chickens. H5N1 can be shed through excretion, fluids and even from the dust that gathers on infected bird feathers.
The article also mentioned previous methods of how avian viruses spread which include flies that visited contaminated sites. One can then conclude from this report that flies, mosquitoes, fleas and other insects may also be able to carry H5N1 to unwilling hosts.
The article also mentioned previous methods of how avian viruses spread which include flies that visited contaminated sites. One can then conclude from this report that flies, mosquitoes, fleas and other insects may also be able to carry H5N1 to unwilling hosts.
Uganda: H5N1 makes contact?
Thousands of chickens in Uganda have in the last week visited the proverbial bucket and have given it a good kick on poultry farms in the East and Central areas of Uganda. The chicken deaths are being blamed on H5N1, who is always a good candidate for blame for chicken deaths these days.
Azerbaijan: H5N1 makes it a family affair
Officials in Azerbaijan suspect that an entire family in the country has had an unwelcome visit from H5N1. The family of six are all suffering from severe pneumonia with two death so far.
Friday, March 03, 2006
Asia: More humans die
China reported a 32 year old man and Indonesia a 3 year old toddler had become deceased as H5N1 developed an increased liking for humans.
Germany: H5N1 closes in on Berlin
Berlin is facing another horrible threat. During the Second World War it was the Soviets. Today it is a chicken flu virus. Panic stricken Germans in Berlin have learnt that H5N1 is now within the surroundings of the city with the virus detected in a coot, a wild swan and a kestrel. The cats of Berlin are also understood to be getting nervous as well.
Europe: bird flu psychosis
Some sources have described the European reaction to H5N1 as a psychosis as a French Mayor bans chicken from the menu in schools, Germans abandon their cats, and the Italians and Greeks cease to eat poultry completely. This is a bad time for cats and the poultry industry in Europe. Good news for British cats and the British poultry industry is that H5N1 panic has yet to break through into the British mind, who is more interested in events going on in EastEnders than what a small virus is doing to chickens, cats and a couple of European industries in countries that Britain has beaten in a couple of wars.
England: Council takes action
Following the death of a duck from H5N1 in Lyon, France, an English council has started issuing advice on H5N1. Southend Council has provided a helpline along with safety advice to people and businesses in the Southend area. Meanwhile in East Anglia, where most of the British poultry industry is based and many councillors have some sort of link with poultry, the councils have been impressively inactive.
Lack of Cooperation Promotes H5N1
H5N1 is enjoying unopposed growth as countries across the world infected by H5N1 have not cooperated with the experts fighting to control the virus. Wetlands International who is one of the organisations working against H5N1 has named Sudan, Turkey, Tunisia, Iran and Nigeria as amongst those who are choosing not to cooperate due to fears of what H5N1 is doing to their respective poultry and tourist industries. H5N1 has a similar reputation of destruction of poultry and tourist industries as the proverbial bull in a china shop. Countries with H5N1 face a dilemma of whether they shoot the chicken first or break the egg. Meanwhile H5N1 is quietly moving through the aforementioned countries saying hello to as many new found friends as possible.
Armenia in Denial
With all neighbouring countries now announcing visits from H5N1 it is only Armenia left denying there is a problem. Unofficial reports say Armenia has a problem however the wise leaders of Armenia for reasons known only to them deny there is an H5N1 infection in their country. UNICEF who is a UN charity dedicated to children's issues has become concerned enough to issue posters to Armenian children and their parents in handling and keeping poultry. It appears H5N1 will soon have a close but fatal realationship with Armenian children compliments of the Armenian Government.
WHO calls an H5N1 Conference
Is there a sense of rising panic in WHO one wonders with experts and governments beginning to loose control of both containing H5N1 and also controlling their people's growing fear. WHO has today announced plans for a 3 day meeting at its headquarters in Geneva next Monday in an attempt to organise a universal strategy against H5N1. WHO stated:
"Even if the pandemic cannot be stopped, public health interventions might buy time to allow countries to further strengthen their response systems, as well as accelerating the production of pandemic vaccine."
Reading between the lines it is obvious WHO has not only lost control of dealing with H5N1 but is aware that something very nasty is about to happen. Perhaps WHO may like to buy a couple of British lottery tickets?
"Even if the pandemic cannot be stopped, public health interventions might buy time to allow countries to further strengthen their response systems, as well as accelerating the production of pandemic vaccine."
Reading between the lines it is obvious WHO has not only lost control of dealing with H5N1 but is aware that something very nasty is about to happen. Perhaps WHO may like to buy a couple of British lottery tickets?
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